Cheltenham Festival 2011/2012

[noble1]

i hope u was on Crus for the Cleeve Hurdle, his price for the World hurdle has just crashed

Didn"t see it unfortunately.

What"s your opinion, does he look good enough to beat Bucks ?

Thinking about laying it off now.

hmmm theoretically when it comes to trading we should assess the current price of the horse and decide whether it still represents value. If we think it does, then arguably we should be putting more money on it, not laying-off.
Depends on your bet size and your betting bank Leigh [if u have one ], if your not used to long losing sequences or u want to grow your bank in a slow safe manner then trading now would be ok imho... If it was me i"d let it ride and trade in running for a small profit/small loss breakeven if things look gloomy come the day, ground/going is the key Leigh, will Grand Crus go on good or firmer? imho he"ll go on it but his action looks more suited to a softer going, meh it makes the World Hurdle look a lot more interesting now, Big Bucks has a contender now....

[noble1]

Grand Crus in the Cleeve Hurdle - press [< on the player to view the parade etc...
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,415922_3,00.html

[noble1]

Once upon a time there was a race called the Jewson Novice Handicap Chase, now it is called the Centenary Novices Handicap Chase, this race has been moved from Thursday to the Monday... Just to confuse some, there is now a race on day 3 called the Jewson Novices Chase which is Grade 2 listed to be ran over 2m4f...

Centenary Novices Handicap Chase [last race of day 1]
the key stat is that out of all 6 runnings of this race the 6 winners had won or finished second lto.....
horses with these lto finishes have been responsible for the 1-2-3 four times and a 1-2 on another......
on the official ratings put a line through the top 7, all the winners have been in the mid and lower end of the weight scale......
only 1 fav has finished 1st out of the 6 races, not a large sample but the other 5 races the favourite did not place at all....
5 out of the 6 winners had all ran once before at Cheltenham......[quite a few horses that enter this race but not all have previous experience at Cheltenham, it may help to discount one from the shortlist]
in the main it may pay to favour horses from your shortlist that are within the top 6 in the betting.....
hopefully this gives a manageable shortlist to work through or you can borrow nosey-p"s lucky? pin

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=374162&r_date=2005-03-17&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=400338&r_date=2006-03-16&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=424598&r_date=2007-03-15&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=449565&r_date=2008-03-13&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=474814&r_date=2009-03-12&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=499100&r_date=2010-03-18&popup=yes

[noble1]

Day 2 begins with a race for amateur jockeys, it is the oldest race at the festival. The mix of novice horses, amateur jockeys and a race which is ran over 4 miles makes this a tough one to predict....

National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup -some pointers which may help.
look for horses that finished in the top 4 lto, 25 out of the last 27 winners have had this stat...
12 of the past 17 winners finished in the top 2..
only two 6 year olds have won in the last 21 runnings, put a line through them and anything younger..
in the last 21 runnings 7 & 8 year olds have won 16 times..
favourites have only won this 3 times in the last 21 years..
put a line through any Paul Nicholls trained horse..
any horse opening up in single figure odds on the day then put a line through it..
put a line through any horse whose jockey has no wins for this racing season 2010/11..

hopefully the above will help pin point a winner from your short list, if in doubt then PM nosey-p and ask to use his lucky? pin

[Chipaccrual]

Keep it coming Noble.

I"m thinking we"ll run a Cheltenham tipping comp on here.  Open to suggestions on format.

Got some good prizes.


APAT merchandise
Drinks from Des
A share in the APAT Horse (No, hang on, we sold that to G Casino Bolton on the weekend   )

[noble1]

PEDDLERS CROSS

not so good news for Peddlers Cross supporters - http://blog.bangorondeeraces.co.uk/bit-hold-peddlers-cross

[jacklevel06]

Noble do you get the Weatherbys cheltenham festival guide.For a stats man like yourself its invaluable.Come"s out on 24/2/2011.

[noble1]

Noble do you get the Weatherbys cheltenham festival guide.For a stats man like yourself its invaluable.Come"s out on 24/2/2011.

i prefer to do my own jackl.. , i approach the cheltenham festival races by looking for stat/form trends,patterns in form,recent form,trainer form and gut instinct based on what i see.. i also keep an eye out for trainer predictability as i call it, the leading trainers do have certain methods in how they prep there horses.. meh the stats play a part especially for the festival cos some of these races have been running for years, we"d be fools to ignore the trends totally but sometimes a little left of center out of the box thinking is required
i thought i"d give a few pointers to help those that were interested in having a few bets during Cheltenham, now Leigh comes up with this   -

Keep it coming Noble.

I"m thinking we"ll run a Cheltenham tipping comp on here.  Open to suggestions on format.

Got some good prizes.


APAT merchandise
Drinks from Des
A share in the APAT Horse (No, hang on, we sold that to G Casino Bolton on the weekend   )

so jackl.. and any other apat-GG men out there feel free to suggest how you"d want to score this comp, maybe run the tips versus nosey-p"s lucky? pin selections ?  

[noble1]

Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle
winners form below -
2010 - http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=729930
2009 - http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=700801
2008 - http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=672982
2007 - http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=634583
2006 - http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=620206
2005 - http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=556464
2004 - http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=582060
2003 - http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=557094
2002 - http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=537964
2000 - http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=504913

race results from previous years -
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=497797&r_date=2010-03-17&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=473556&r_date=2009-03-11&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=448233&r_date=2008-03-14&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=423219&r_date=2007-03-14&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=398616&r_date=2006-03-15&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=368038&r_date=2005-03-16&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=344428&r_date=2004-03-17&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=326816&r_date=2003-03-12&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=310977&r_date=2002-03-13&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=276311&r_date=2000-03-15&popup=yes


favour Irish and French breds for the shortlist, put a line through the rest...
5 and 6 year olds have a really good record so put a line through the rest...
put a line through Nicky Henderson runners, his record for this is a poor 0/21...
favour horses in your shortlist that open up in the top 6 of the betting...
if a horse in your shortlist ran in the previous year in the Festival Bumper, then if they finished in the top 6 then that can be a pointer... out of 11 which have done so, 3 have won and 3 have placed...
put a line through any horse which did not finish 1st or 2nd lto...

the above should leave a nice shortlist..


also keep an eye out for placed finishers, this race tends to attract top class future stars who go onto win arkles, champion hurdles,gold cups,world hurdles etc etc and even the odd Gold Cup at Ascot has been known [Rite of Passage 20/1]

[noble1]

RSA Chase - some pointers
irish bred have a good record so put a line through the rest [keep in Paul Nicholls french breds]
7 and 8 year olds have dominated this 14/16, if you really want to chance it then concentrate on the 7yo"s only...
form matters in this so a 1st or 2nd in the previous race is a must, put a line through the rest...
you need a horse that has had at least 3 races over fences, put a line through any horse with less experience than this..
put a line through any horse with a jockey that has not won at Cheltenham in the current or prior season [obv you don"t get many but you do get some eg - Jan Faltejsek, R M Power and Mattie Batchelor are recent examples]

not many pointers but it will discount quite a few... take a closer look at horses on your shortlist that have had prep runs in the Novice Chase at Newbury [in Feb], the Reynoldstown Novices Chase at Ascot [in Feb], the Dr.P.J Moriarty Novice Chase at Leopardstown and the Feltham novices chase at Kempton...

hopefully the above will increse your chances of finding a winner, good luck....

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=497502&r_date=2010-03-17&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=473173&r_date=2009-03-11&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=447771&r_date=2008-03-13&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=422748&r_date=2007-03-14&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=398284&r_date=2006-03-15&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=366076&r_date=2005-03-16&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=344210&r_date=2004-03-17&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=326500&r_date=2003-03-12&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=310634&r_date=2002-03-13&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=276071&r_date=2000-03-15&popup=yes

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A8VfACxUFU[/youtube]

hmmm  

[ThinkerJE]

Top stuff Noble.  Thanks for all the stats and video analysis.

Only just getting round to updating my trends for the festival so need to get a move on as it starts 3 weeks today.  Unfortunately I have no holiday left so have to be at work.  Sky+ and avoiding the internet & radio FTW

[noble1]

Four days to go, so i will fly through some stats for the Festival........

Queen Mother Champion Chase

key races -
Tingle Creek Chase
Tied Cottage Chase
2010 Arkle Chase

The Tingle Creek is usually ran at Sandown, but this year was ran at Cheltenham... Horses that ran in the Tingle prior to the Queen Mother have a good record, 8 of the last 10 winners contested this race...

Big Zeb won the Tied Cottage Chase last season before going on to win the QM, just to put a spanner in the works he lost to Golden Silver this year !!

The previous years Arkle winner for the last 12 years has finished 1st or 2nd [10/12] the other 2 finishing 3rd....

Look for horses that have won over 2m2f or are CD winners...

In recent years there is a strong trend for horses rated 160+ and have previously won a grade 1 race in there racing career, 8 of the last 9 winners having done so....

The last 13 winners had no more than 4 races that racing season..


there you go, short "n" sweet.....

[noble1]

Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle)

In the last 10 runnings French breds have won 5 times, Irish breds have won 4 times.. It maybe worth sticking a line through the rest

10 of the last 11 winners were aged under 8....

No horse has won with a OR above 147....

6 of the last 8 winners had won last time out.... [Spirit River last years winner ran in the Totesport Trophy finishing 17th] [last time out winners filled the 1-2-3 in 2009]

Put a line through the favourite, there record is 2 from the last 17....

The Totesport Trophy has been a guide in recent years, horses that contested this race have gone onto win the Coral 3 times in the last 6 years....

5,6 and 7 year olds have won 9 of the last 10 races....

As per usual JP McManus owned horses are ones to watch out for, he does like a horse to be primed for this race with a betting coup in mind....

[noble1]

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Not much in the way of strong trends as this race has only been running since 2005....

5 out of 6 winners of this race had won last time out..

David Pipe has a good record upto now, a winner, 2x2nds and a 3rd in the last 4 years

In all of the 6 races only 6 horses priced less than 10/1 have finished in the top 7 !!!

4/6 winners were in the top 1/3 of the handicap...

Fillies have won 2 out of 6

All 6 winners were beaten in there first 2 hurdle races !!

Sandown CD winners have won 3/4 last runnings [Kayef and Kumbeshwar are the only ones with this stat running this year, of the 2 Scudamore"s could be the dark horse, having just acquired his handicap !! ]

[noble1]

Champion Bumper

Irish trained and Irish bred dominate this, put a line through the rest imho..... [Cue Card was Irish bred from King"s Theatre and won at 40/1 last year]

The last 4 winners of this race were all unbeaten previously.....

Last time out winners have won 16/18....

14/18 were in the top 6 of the betting.... [see below - favourites]

Willie Mullins has won this 6 times in the last 14 years, 5 of his winners were once raced 5 year olds !! [Lord Gale and Allure Of Illusion are the Mullins once raced 5 year olds for this year]

In recent times since 95, 4 year olds had a terrible winning record until last year when Cue Card won, but it may pay to stick with the 5 and 6 year olds... [put a line through the 4 year olds ]

Only 2 favourites have won in the last 10 years....

Put a line through French bred horses....

Five of the last eight winners had no race prior in the calendar year....


Thats the last race of day 2, if you are feeling the crippling effects of Cheltenham then at least on day 3  St. Patricks day, a nice drop or two of Guinness will numb it...