I will fly through day three with some pointers..
1:30 - Jewson Novices ChaseA new race for this year, it will suit horses not quite quick enough for the Arkle but who have stamina doubts for the RSA.
To improve the chances of getting a winner i would look out for these form pointers -
1. Favour a horse if it has had a win over hurdles in pattern company..
2. 1st or 2nd last time out is a plus...
3. Horses 8 years or older - put a line through them, favour the younger improvers...
4. Be on the look out when reading the form for horses that have ran well against Arkle and RSA fancied horses...
2:05 - Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)A race in which is normally a major betting heat, lots of talking horses get stuffed in this year in year out.. Some big priced winners have won over recent years, since 2004 in order the prices have been - 50/1 10/1 50/1 14/1 18/1 16/1 16/1... Do not just focus on recent winners but instead try to spot horses that will improve for different ground conditions or who may be suited to the Cheltenham track...
Trends for the race
1. Put a line through any 5 year old and anything 10+ years old...
2. 9 of the last 15 races were won by horses winning last time out..
3. Put a line through horses running out of the handicap...
4. If the horse is rated 150+ then generally don"t hesitate to put a line through it..
5. Put a line through the favourite...
6. 15/21 winners of this race have been 7 to 9 years old [the other 6 have been 6 year olds]
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=345220&r_date=2004-03-16&popup=yeshttp://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=374164&r_date=2005-03-17&popup=yeshttp://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=400340&r_date=2006-03-16&popup=yeshttp://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=424599&r_date=2007-03-15&popup=yeshttp://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=449566&r_date=2008-03-13&popup=yeshttp://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=474816&r_date=2009-03-12&popup=yeshttp://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=499101&r_date=2010-03-18&popup=yes2:40 - Ryanair ChaseThe Paddy Power Gold Cup, the Boylesports Gold Cup and the King George VI Chase have been good pointers, so look over these races carefuly imho... Peterborough Chase and Ascot Chase winners have a terrible record in this race...
trends -
1. 11/12 winners had won at Cheltenham before...
2. The last six winners were rated 152 to 157...
3. Horses prominent in the betting have won 5/6 [6/1 and less] Albertas Run win at 14/1 last year maybe a blip?
4. Put a line through Irish trained horses, there record is atrocious....
5. Put a line through the top rated horse...
3:20 - Ladbrokes World HurdleYou have to go back to 1999 for the last double figure priced horse winning this, so imho concentrate on horses at the head of the market... The Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle are the best guides as to the form....
trends -
1. No 5 year old has ever won, put the line through them
2. Previous runs in the festival over the years are a plus, 15 of the last 17 winners had this stat...
3. 6 to 8 year olds have a great record 20 wins out of the last 21 runnings....
4. There has not been a Irish trained winner since 1995...
5. French breds have won 5 of the last 9 runnings...
6. 14 of the last 16 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out...
7. The 1-2-3 has been made up of horses in the top 5 of the betting 6 times out of the last 7 races...
8. Only 12 favourites have won this race since 1972...
4:00 - Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase) - formerly called The Festival Plate, The Racing Post Plate and The Mildmay of Flete
With the introduction of the Jewson Handicap specifically for novices the trends/form pointers for this may go squee whiff, so keep this in mind
trends -
1. 21/23 winners were rated 141 or less...
2. Put a line through any horse carrying more than 11 stone...
3. French breds have a excellent record in this, they have won 6 of the last 11 races and have had 4 runner ups...
4. Put a line through the favourite...
5. Put a line through Irish trained horses..
6. 17 of the last 19 winners had all ran in previous years at the Festival...
7. 17/19 previous winners had finished in the top 4 last time out...
8. Horses aged 8 years or more have a good record in this race, winning 7 of the last 10 runnings.....
9. All of the last 10 winners had won over 2m3f......
10. Since 2000 all the winners have been double figure prices [Mister McGoldrick 66/1 in 2007]
11. 10 of the last 12 winners had ran no more than 16 times over fences before their win.....
4:40 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase)Amateur jockeys are a nightmare so this race is tough to predict, try to assess the jockey just as much as the horse would be my advice
trends -
1. Only 2 favourites have won the race in the last 11 years....
2. There has not been an Irish trained winner of this race for 27 years.....
3. 6 of the last 8 winners were unplaced in their previous race....
4. Put a line through all 7 year olds and younger.....
5. 5 out of the last 7 winners were rated between 124 and 128....
6. Top weight has won the last two runnings...
7. 5 of the last 6 winners were ridden by non-claiming amateurs.......
and that is the end of Day 3, hopefully the above will help in sorting out your short lists....
