A hand from the late stages of the APAT UK Team Champs that I understand was the cause of some debate on the Live Feed. I gather that my call was deemed to be bad, but at the time it felt right, and on reflection it still feels right. Thought I would post it here for review/comment.
Scenario is that we are at least two tables, and my team"s chances of a medal are gone, so I"m now playing for first and first only. I have 120k, with blinds at 3k/6k/a800. I"ve not played a hand for at least two orbits on our 7 handed table, when this happens.
Folds to me in the CO, and I open for 16k with 22. Btn has 60k, SB has massive stack, and BB has short stack. I fold if btn or SB play back at me, not sure what to do if BB plays back. At this point, the raise is purely a position steal to try and keep some stack momentum.
Btn and SB folded, BB shoved.
Initial instinct is to fold, but ask for a count anyway. BB"s stack is 39k. So, the pot is 5.6k antes, 3k SB, 16k my bet, and 39k BB shove = 63.6k, and I need to call 23k more.
If I call and lose, I have 80k behind - around 13 bigs. I asked the BB how he felt about his hand, and from the response, I got a fairly solid read that I was against overcards rather than overpair.
So, going with my read, I"m in a 50/50 race with pot odds of nearly 3:1. To me that"s a call every time. If I"m unsure about my read, I may find a fold given that BB"s range could include all the overpairs..... however I was pretty sure about the read.
So - question is... make the mathematically correct call based on instinctual read about oppo"s range, or fold to preserve chips and tournament equity at this late stage and wait for a better spot?
call or fold?
