Hand Analysis (from OnLive)

[lukybugur]

In OnLive last night I"m involved in the following;

Play is 7 handed, 22 players remain, Blinds are 4k/8k, I"ve just clawed my way back up to around 9th in chips (slightly below average), I"ve been playing v tight, player in BB has been chip leader from early on and has been bullying me off hands with regular re-raises. UTG+1 is short stacked and has shown he"s willing to shove with any two cards.

On SB I"m dealt  qc td
UTG+1 calls 8k

I call the 4k, BB checks.

Flop comes   :: ts

With top pair I uncharacteristically bet out 16k of my 54k stack into the 24k pot happy to take it down there. I"m also happy to call a push from UTG+1. To my surprise, BB immediately pushes All-In for 165k and UTG+1 insta-calls for his remaining 41k.

I"m getting great pot odds to call, I"ve invested a third of my stack into the pot already, I"m short stacked but have been through a tough and somewhat emotional survival course to get this far. I think;

To Call and win would take me into the top 5 in chips

To Fold would leave me with 38k (around 12th) with the blinds having just left me and still alive with a chance to make the final table and $10k WSOP Seat

To Call and lose to an over-pair or flush draw here would mean being out in 22nd

What would y"all do ... ? What do you put these guys on and would you call for your Tournament Life in the biggest tournament you"ve ever played in ... ?

I"ll play the hand down once I have a few replies.

[kinboshi]

I would have pushed on the flop.  You don"t have enough chips behind to  worry a caller who is prepared to call 16K on the flop, i.e. you bet that now and they call, they"re going to be calling a shove on the turn.  Surely the flop is pretty much the best you could have hoped for (minus the flush draw).

Your hand isn"t strong enough that you want action.  A push gives both of them a lot to think about - the short-stack his tournament life, and it"s a significant chunk of the big stack.  Your bet gives a hand such as Ax of diamonds the odds to call. 

Of course, what the hell do I know?  I was knocked out several hours earlier by 85o.

As for calling now....I don"t know.  Horrible situation, and I have no idea what you"re up against.  If I have a dog here, it"s probably run off as it knows I"m looking for something to kick.  

[Eck]

Most of these problems tend to manifest with the pre-flop play. I would ask myself why has shortstack limped when previously he has pushed with atc as you say. Therefore would give him credit for something good (AA/KK) and he is looking for more than the blinds. (Not necessarily the case as we have seen some questionable plays so could be a larger range). Therefore i save myself the 4k normally as you only have 6/7 BBs and would look to get them in the middle in a better position, even pushing with atc into an unopened pot would be preferable to calling at this stage imo.

As played the actions would suggest you are behind at least one (Shortstack still likes his hand even with all the action) and BB may have hit Flush draw or raggedy 2 pair. Fold and shove into next unopened pot.

Expecting to be totally wrong and you were in front....

[BioBlinx]

This is an interesting hand. Just a couple of questions about the reads and such.

The BB would regularly reraise you to bully you off hands, would he normally do this preflop or post flop?

Also, the atc player, would he push ATC pre or postflop the most?

The situation as it came about, the limp preflop is quite fine, despite the ATC players limp which I agree would be suspicious had be constantly pushing ATC preflop, you"re still getting 5/1 on your money, I think thats enough for a limp to hit something that can take the rest of his chips if he has something good.

The flop bet I"m not sure about. Firstly, yeah the bet is leaving you short, you"re betting a fair portion of your stack. Kinboshi might have been right with his push in suggestion here. Or you check raise all in. But yeah, its hard because how can you not like this flop? I think though as played out, the action you get is tough, thats why I was wondering whether the BB and ATC player did their plays pre or post flop the most. But it looks like the BBs push suprised you.

Running the numbers, Assuming that you"re behind to at least one guy, I cant find a situation where you"re the 7/2 dog you need to be here to make the call profitable. but that is giving credit to one of these guys for a better hand than you. My numbers may be completely wrong too so I dont know.

God its a tough one. I think in the situation you ended up in, I"m folding here. Im just wondering though whether something could have played out differently to avoid it or not, its a tough on. Anyway, I"ve been waffling on enough, I"ll let someone else try and answer .

[Mikeyboy9361]

The main thing here is the importance of the tournament to you, as you say you"ve been thru an emotional roller coaster, and you can see the possibility of a final table. After you had made up the bet, and then hit the flop, I think at that point maybe you should have pushed, as it has turned out with the big raise and the insta call you are probably behind.
You are probably up against a flush draw, and maybe something like ace 10 who has also hit the flop. Any way if it was me I would lay this hand down and hope to get it all in when in a better position and a stronger hand, even though the pot odds are tempting.
So final answer Chris, is lay it down!

[lukybugur]

4 outta 4 for a fold!???! Good! I folded!

GB2Loose in BB turns over for an open-ended straight draw

jacklevel turns tc  

Turn is ks

River is

As we all suspected, I"d folded the best and winning hand! I was 45% fave in this 3 way pot on the flop, GB2 is 37%. Although never a favourite, what I thought to be a very loose bet is pretty justified according to the stats. jacklevel is just 10%! My fold though made jack a 64% favourite.

Obviously I realise now that I should have called the All-Ins. I don"t think I"d ever push 2.5 times the pot into a multi-way pot in first position with a pair of Tens Q kicker though.

As this happened online, I didn"t get enough time to fully consider what each opponent had. With only 8k invested in the pot and calling two bets on the flop for his tournament life, 95% of me put jacklevel on an overpair. The other 5% of me put him on AT. My fold was more through confusion, surprise and fear - I certainly wouldn"t have mucked my hand within 15 secs in a big live event but I probably would still have mucked nonetheless.

I (maybe stupidly) wanted action, then, when I got what I termed to be too much action, I talked myself out continuing in favour of staying alive (albeit barely) in a tourney that meant a LOT to me. I think this niggling negative and passive mindset has been brought on by a recent run of losing EVERY 50/50 on BlueSq.

Thank you to everyone who"s taken the time to scrutinise, critisise and sympathise. Please feel free to keep the opinions coming now that you know the outcome. Comments like "Donk!" and "Idiot" are expected from those who have the benefit of reading this post.

Kin, I hope you don"t mind that I"ve adopted the below animation from one of your posts yesterday. I still go into knots when I see it! Probably because it sums up this and many more of my hands so well!!

[APAT]

I saw the hand and remembered your disbelief when the cards were revealed following your fold Neil.  I think I agree with Daniel here, in that that flop was probably as good as you could have expected with your stack at that point.  I"m pushing at that point.

[kinboshi]

I saw the hand and remembered your disbelief when the cards were revealed following your fold Neil.  I think I agree with Daniel here, in that that flop was probably as good as you could have expected with your stack at that point.  I"m pushing at that point.

Des - you don"t want to be agreeing with me!  My decision making has been shocking recently!

Neil - love the sig.  It"s such a great little image.  It also shows what I was doing last night.

[lukybugur]

I think it boils down to the fact that I shouldn"t have been that short stacked. I think I got too used to "surviving" rather than "playing" in this event and considered the fold (absolutely the wrong play statistically and strategically) to be the safe option.

No Pro playing that hand would have folded other than on a serious Cash or Final Table bubble maybe ... then again, as I"m told in almost every magazine I read, no Pro would have allowed himself to be that short-stacked. The strategy behind such is one I only agree with to a certain degree and maybe this is why I"m only an moderately successful player.

Earlier, when I was down at 5k/6k with blinds at 600/1200 I was still folding hands and even folding blinds waiting for opportunities - a serious no-no strategy by the best players in the world. Had I made the right call in the above hand though, as a reward for playing this desperate, survival-style poker 20 mins earlier, I would have launched myself from 25th of 27 into the top 5 with 20 remaining within less than two crippling blind rotations.

I"m still open to hearing what more APATers think.

[biffa85]

I think you made the concidered decision, you had to feel you were probably behind with one and the other on some kind of a draw, laying down understandable all things concidered, yes you had the hand and odds to call, but heartt wants to live to fight another day.  Have to agree with Daniel pushing on the flop was the choice I would probably made. 

But for God"s sake don"t listen to me, I pushed with  ts tc whilst telling my wife I was up against  :as: ah.....(and no I don"t have a clue why I did it!)

[lukybugur]

Thanks biffa. I"m still not 100% convinced that a push on the flop is the most profitable play here (ha ha, I say whilst hemorrhaging chips chasing a flush in a BlueSq SitnGo)

24k in the pot - all limped in for 8k, jacklevel for almost 1/5 of his stack from an early position (disguising a monster or in a desperate situation???)

GB2Loose has only committed 8k of 170k
jacklevel has committed 8k of 49k

If I push my remaining 54k in on the flop in 1st position, I have to believe that I"m only going to be called by a hand that has me beat ... ?

I think I"m now, having seen what I"ve written above, coming round to your ways of thinking. It was a shock to go from the aggressor / trapper to defender / trapped.  As it happened online (quickly) I was forced to make what felt like a split-second decision for my tourney life, and I now live with the fact that it was the wrong one.

[kinboshi]

As you"re out of position, the shove makes even more sense as it negates that issue on the other streets.

The other very important thing you"ve alluded to as well is the time you had to make the decision.  In the cold light of day it"s easy to think it though analytically and calmly.  There"s no timebank button on iPoker, and so you have the same time you have for all decisions - and it"s difficult to think as clearly in that 20-30 seconds (or however long it is). 

[lukybugur]

As you"re out of position, the shove makes even more sense as it negates that issue on the other streets.

... which brings Gus Hansen"s (an aggressive player"s) thinking into it. With a flop like this, he"d see himself as IN position. I, having instantly switched from tight passive to tight aggressive with my 16k bet, felt that I was then IN position. It"s just a pity no bugger respected it ...    

Oh it"s such a complex game ... and I love it!!!  

[kinboshi]

As you"re out of position, the shove makes even more sense as it negates that issue on the other streets.

... which brings Gus Hansen"s (an aggressive player"s) thinking into it. With a flop like this, he"d see himself as IN position. I, having instantly switched from tight passive to tight aggressive with my 16k bet, felt that I was then IN position. It"s just a pity no bugger respected it ...    

Oh it"s such a complex game ... and I love it!!!  

Isn"t the point of him looking at that as being "in" position about him being able to dictate play from there?

I don"t think the 16K bet looks like you"re delighted with the flop (but of course, you might well be and are hoping for some action and that"s exactly the point).  If either have the flush draw - they"re probably pushing here.

You also know that both are loose aggressive players, and therefore you must have been expecting something back from them from the 16K bet?

Like you said though.  Plenty of ways to skin a cat, and some are more painful than others!  

[UKChamp]

I would have folded pre flop.

UTG is short stack, so i would assume the limp is probably strength. Therefore your 50:50 vs lower pairs and a significant dog to AQ/AT/KQ/QQ/TT/JJ/KK/AA/AK/AJ, your only ahead against lower Queen holdings and playing out of position doesnt give you anything to work with, whether you hit top pair or not you wont know where you are.

The more pertinent issue here is that he is probably going in on any flop, and unlikley to fold to a flop push from you out of position given the value in the pot and that no strength was shown preflop by either member of the pot. All of which we gain no information from. The only move available is to come over the top preflop or fold. Calling gives you no leway to get away and although only 4k, does nonetheless represent chips that could be saved for a better position.

Given that you dont have a large stack, I would have folded.

At the margin, a flary play would have been (with no UTG limp and bb vs sb) to limp, hoping for a BB raise and then come over the top. With your tight image, its unlikly that the big stack could have called when it looks like hes been trapped.