My mind is made up now for the Derby and the Oaks, i"m already on Recital for the Derby and Dancing Rain has been backed for the Oaks..
Good luck with Carlton House with those that backed it, myself i cant see what all the fuss is about.. The Dante turned out to be pretty weak imo, 3secs slower than the Middleton plus the close proximity of a handicapper in 3rd does not merit favourite status at 2/1 and shorter with some other firms imho... If Mr Stoute manages to win the Derby with CH then it will be a truly great training performance... 9 of the last 53 Dante winners have gone onto to win the Derby so the bookies going as short as they have is just bizarre, an average Dante winner over the years would be around 4 or 5 to 1 for the Derby, is Carlton House that far above average?
Recital won the Derrinstown trial, RPR gave him a rating of 118 which is pretty much on par with my opinion, but having gone back through the Derrinstown, RPR has only given ratings of 115+ to 4 O"Brien horses to then go on to the Derby.. There record having gone onto the Derby is - 2x firsts [High Chaparral and Galileo], 1x second [Fame and Glory behind Sea The Stars] 1x third [Dylan Thomas@25/1 to Sir Percy]... All these 5 went onto to be proved as proper group1 performers so that aids a bit of confidence in what i think of Recital plus the fact Aidan O"B used dual pacemakers for Recital and not for Seville is a clue imo as to which horse he favours.. Yeats got 115+ by RPR after winning the Derrinstown but injury prevented him running again that year, again he went on to be a decent sort
Recital is 8/1 and drifting with some, pretty much the market going on the info from the coolmore website saying there Derby runners are not decided, this doesn"t worry me as A-o"B has ran every fit Derrinstown winner and most of his placed ones in the Derby, the market is knee jerking imho...
Nathanial and Native Khan of the others are live outsiders imho, Nathanial especially is far to big of a price imo...
The Oaks is a head scratcher, a case can be made for a few of these, out of all the trials upto now Dancing Rain catches my eye, nothing more than a gut feel so at 25/1 she is worth a speculative punt....I personally find Fillies are a rum bunch to assess at the best of times so i"m taking a different approach for this years Oaks from how i"ve done it in previous years...
Good luck all with whatever takes your fancy this year....
