Should i stay or should i fold now....

[PantsMan]

£1/£1 Cash game in Coventry, currently sat with about 180 bbs.

New guy has sat down at the table, not really seen much of him so far but has been getting involved.

He"s sat about 4 seats to my right and i"m in the BB.

He raises it up to £4, button calls and i call with   qs .

Flop comes down 9-2-2 rainbow.

I bet out £6, original raiser flat calls, button folds.

Pot is now £25.

Turn comes 4. I check, original raiser bets out £12. I call.

Pot is no £49.

River comes another 2.

I check. Original raiser now overbets the pot with a bet of £64.

Intrigued as to what others think here.....

[Shogun112]

Did it involve the winner buying 200 ducks?

[duke3016]

Me - calling everyday including Sunday - but that"s just me  

[cincicrappykid]

callllllllllllllllllll he has AK and is a DONK

[Marty719]

irl I dnt see myself folding here when he flats our flop donk.  As there are no draws on the flop, he knows our donk into 2 players shows a lot of strength.  This means he will have to turn a lot of high-card floats into bluffs as he will realise they have little sdv.  His value range also doesnt make a lot of sense, as he flats our small flop donk with a player behind.

I like how u played it all btw.

That said, I think its important to note the quality of live poker is not as good as online, so not as many players are capable of making these river overbets with air.  Prob advisable to get a perception of villain and how comfortable he looks at the table and how much live experience he has. 

[SirPercival]

You need to read Zeebo"s theorem.  

[WYoung83]

Really weird spot andy, WTF can he rep here. If hes gonna spew river with AK then surly he raises your donk on the flop. I think (after reading 3 times and changing my mind) that im gonna call here TBH.

[AMRN]

snaaaaaap

[PantsMan]

Did it involve the winner buying 200 ducks?

Unfortunately not. I can"t possibly compete with Craig on the poker rubdowns!

[PantsMan]

Hmmm, interesting replies. Cheers guys.

FWIW - Here was my thinking....

On the flop, ok, i"ve hit the nine, clear bet.

On the turn, check for pot control, call.

On the river, well, this is where i lost it. I checked intending to call, figuring he"d bet out with a pair smaller than nines and i could snap him off as he"d taken my 2 checks to mean i was weak. I did not expect the overbet and for me it"s a great bet on his part as it gives me a huge decision. No surprise to anyone on here, i tanked for a bit.  

In the end i folded. My reasoning...

If he"s got a nine i"m betting £64 to win £25. Not good.
If he"s got plus then he"d have played it much the same.
If he"s got a 2 then he"s overbetting to get a call from a nine or an overpair. It"s how i"d have played it.

If he"s got nothing then great call by me, woohoo but what are the chances?

The table was very weak and there were going to be much better spots to get my money in.

As it turns out, later in the game i wished i"d have called him! I later got a pair of tens, bet out on a 7 high flop and got called by him. Turn Q, River K and i made a hero call against his big river bet and took £60 off him. C"est la vie!

[mousebob]

Don"t think I"d be folding in this spot. You got him in a corner & let him off!!
Interesting that you made what looks like a harder call later.
Always easier to make decisions reading a forum!!

[Swinebag]

Cant see me folding this either. However your thinking seems pretty good so great fold

[deanp27]

if you are leading flop i am betting turn and then river, but as played not c/folding river

[PantsMan]

Cheers guys, always good to get other opinions. All are welcome.

For me it was about risk/reward. I figured most likely he had a nine, in which case it was £65 to win £25, but if i was wrong then it was £65 down the drain. I could only beat a bluff (or a smaller pair), therefore it wasn"t worth the risk and i didn"t know enough about the player.

It may have clouded my judgement that i"d made a similar call in a game a few years back where he turned over the case Jack for Quads and cost me a lot of money.

Personally i think it"s a great bet on his part whatever he has, although the amount of people on here saying call means if he was bluffing it"s a terrible move but if he has the two it"s genius!  But then that"s what i love about poker!  

[Shonky]

I think he could just as easily have been holding an overpair as he could be holding a 9.  I dont think there are many hands he could 4 bet pre that have a 2 in there... therefore i"d consider repping a 2 myself especially being in the blinds and having opened on the flop, by pot betting the turn (maybe check raise would work too).  If he calls you know he has a hand you"re either splitting with him or he has you beat.  Check or value bet the river, he"ll most likely take the cheap showdown IMO.