ITM spot, what to do????

[TheSnapper]

[mousebob]

I fold, hoping the fish wins! Calling makes post flop play difficult as hard to fold.
Maybe against a careful?/tight? player you could shove to try & force sb out.
Seems unlikely due to stack sizes.

[AMRN]

jam

[TheSnapper]

jam

Love to hear your expert opinion on what action to take and more importantly why?

Single word replies will do lots for your post count Steve, but c"mon indulge me a little.

[AMRN]

jam

Love to hear your expert opinion on what action to take and more importantly why?

Single word replies will do lots for your post count Steve, but c"mon indulge me a little.

You"ve labelled the SB as a fish, and his flat call in this spot with the BB still to act is awful.

If he has a big hand, he should be isolating to get a HU showdown..... or to get more of your chips in to create a side pot if you choose to call once he"s raised. So, I pretty much discount a big hand - knowing the way most weak fish play this spot, he probably has a raggy ace that he thinks is ahead of the button"s shove range.

For you I would hate folding - you have a semi-premium hand and are probably ahead of the SB.... folding to hope for a ladder jump would be lame.

The fish probably thinks you should call to make it a 2 v 1 showdown and to improve the chance of knocking the shortstack out.

I jam to take a headsup showdown with the shortstack in a pot that is juiced by the fish"s weak call - I have to assume he folds most hands when you jam. However, if he happens to make a ropey call with a raggy ace or overcards, you are racing to win the tourney.

Never folding. Hate flatting. Jam FTW.

[TheSnapper]

jam

Love to hear your expert opinion on what action to take and more importantly why?

Single word replies will do lots for your post count Steve, but c"mon indulge me a little.

You"ve labelled the SB as a fish, and his flat call in this spot with the BB still to act is awful.

If he has a big hand, he should be isolating to get a HU showdown..... or to get more of your chips in to create a side pot if you choose to call once he"s raised. So, I pretty much discount a big hand - knowing the way most weak fish play this spot, he probably has a raggy ace that he thinks is ahead of the button"s shove range.

For you I would hate folding - you have a semi-premium hand and are probably ahead of the SB.... folding to hope for a ladder jump would be lame.

The fish probably thinks you should call to make it a 2 v 1 showdown and to improve the chance of knocking the shortstack out.

I jam to take a headsup showdown with the shortstack in a pot that is juiced by the fish"s weak call - I have to assume he folds most hands when you jam. However, if he happens to make a ropey call with a raggy ace or overcards, you are racing to win the tourney.

Never folding. Hate flatting. Jam FTW.

Excellent reply Steve.

Though your assumptions about SB are usually spot on!

My read on SB was such that........

he would not understand that he should iso raise any hand and either flats or folds in this spot.

equally he 100% calls if we iso raise him.

Based on that do you still think Jamming is best?

[TheSnapper]

I fold, hoping the fish wins! Calling makes post flop play difficult as hard to fold.
Maybe against a careful?/tight? player you could shove to try & force sb out.
Seems unlikely due to stack sizes.

with a guy all in, postflop should play out somewhat honestly.

[AMRN]

jam

Love to hear your expert opinion on what action to take and more importantly why?

Single word replies will do lots for your post count Steve, but c"mon indulge me a little.

You"ve labelled the SB as a fish, and his flat call in this spot with the BB still to act is awful.

If he has a big hand, he should be isolating to get a HU showdown..... or to get more of your chips in to create a side pot if you choose to call once he"s raised. So, I pretty much discount a big hand - knowing the way most weak fish play this spot, he probably has a raggy ace that he thinks is ahead of the button"s shove range.

For you I would hate folding - you have a semi-premium hand and are probably ahead of the SB.... folding to hope for a ladder jump would be lame.

The fish probably thinks you should call to make it a 2 v 1 showdown and to improve the chance of knocking the shortstack out.

I jam to take a headsup showdown with the shortstack in a pot that is juiced by the fish"s weak call - I have to assume he folds most hands when you jam. However, if he happens to make a ropey call with a raggy ace or overcards, you are racing to win the tourney.

Never folding. Hate flatting. Jam FTW.

Excellent reply Steve.

Though your assumptions about SB are usually spot on!

My read on SB was such that........

he would not understand that he should iso raise any hand and either flats or folds in this spot.

equally he 100% calls if we iso raise him.

Based on that do you still think Jamming is best?

yes. I still say folding a medium pair in this spot is lame and overly nitty, and flatting is horrible. I"m always jamming here against this oppo - if SB calls, then we only need to beat the SB to show profit in the hand. (I"ve already discounted overpair hands from the SB range, so we"re ahead and racing at worst).

[Fatcatstu]

no point repeating msr redfern, all in immeiately. brendan

[Swinebag]

Think this is far from a snap shove, given that the caller of the first shove is most likely calling a second shove from Brendan.

However, this is still a great spot 3 handed to scoop up first and if it goes belly up you are still in the hunt.

There is a good chance that you could be facing 4 overcards in a 3 way but it is also the best part of a coinflip to double your payout. you only need to beat one of these hands to do that.

I would normally consider flatting to be option Z here but given the nature of the SB there could be some argument for this. Just not sure what yet.

Yes, my ramblings whilst composing this post have convinced me that I shove here, but I would not consider it a straightforward one. Deal me 88 and it becomes a lot easier.

PS is there a chip EV calculation for this? Noble?

[TheSnapper]

Think this is far from a snap shove, given that the caller of the first shove is most likely calling a second shove from Brendan.

However, this is still a great spot 3 handed to scoop up first and if it goes belly up you are still in the hunt.

There is a good chance that you could be facing 4 overcards in a 3 way but it is also the best part of a coinflip to double your payout. you only need to beat one of these hands to do that.

I would normally consider flatting to be option Z here but given the nature of the SB there could be some argument for this. Just not sure what yet.

Yes, my ramblings whilst composing this post have convinced me that I shove here, but I would not consider it a straightforward one. Deal me 88 and it becomes a lot easier.

PS is there a chip EV calculation for this? Noble?

There is an EV calc, heading out now but will try later.

[noble1]

PS is there a chip EV calculation for this? Noble?

ty for that Rob lol   ...  Alas Aunt Sally has hidden my mathematically thing me do head and i have my percy thrower head on today [me has been out gardening the past few days, digging, cutting and chopping trees with a tad bit of burning as well, i luvvv burning things lol lol]
$ev OR icm WHATEVER   i"ll leave to snapper and the thread, although IMHO u were on the right lines Rob with your line of thought that at best your 35% to win if u shove and get called.. All depends i suspect as to how much u fancy your chances in the scenarios if u call and lose and either the decent player triples up or the maniac wins etc etc OR if u fold whether or not the maniac ko"s shortie and u get to plays HU with the perceived weaker player...

meh it will interesting to see how the thread goes, anyhoooss back to garden, me has some burning to do

[TheSnapper]

Ok my rudimentary attempt at the sums.

We have to combine 2x EV equations because of the side pot.

The range for button jam is huge but I've played around with it and even the very conservative range of..

22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q7s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A2o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o

which is top ~35% of hands, combined with an equally conservative range for SB of..

22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A6o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

Which is top ~25%

Against those ranges 77 has ~33% equity in the main pot and ~53% in the side pot versus the SB

Stacks are..

Btn: 55000
SB: 168000
BB: 260000

Main pot = .33 (55000+55000) + .67 (-55000) = -550

Side pot =  .53 (168000-55000) + .47 (-111300) = 6780

EV = 6230

So clearly Jamming is +EV without allowing for SB to fold <0%

There is most likely some ICM consideration at play in this spot too and it would be great to see some attempt at that, sadly it is a step beyond my limited capabilities

[noble1]

[TheSnapper]

ok, how it played out.

Thought process.

The guy on the button was a decent player and it was definately in our best interest that he exited this hand so folding is not an option?

The SB was a complete maniac and could have absolutely any hand here, but! he is never folding to an iso raise.

77 is definately ahead of his range.

The SB is so bad that we expect to crush him HU playing a small ball game giving him more opportunities to err.

All that leads to the point Noble makes.

if u call and u had 33% equity then basically u win 33 times £500..
of the other 67 times break it down into each scenario - u heads up with player1 or 2, u as the short stack 3ways.. what % of times do u end up getting 1st 2nd or 3rd

if u fold [lets say player1 and player2 are 50/50]
50 times u lock up 2nd place money and end up heads up with the weak player, what % of times will u end up beating the weak player heads up [for instance u think u have a skill advantage and will beat him 70% of the time]
50 times the short stack doubles up - with your chip advantage 3way, what % would u guesstimate u still winning, getting 2nd or coming 3rd

There are just too many variables in there for my "hard drive" but would love to see an attempt at it Noble. Specifically, of the times we dont win the pot, how do you figure out the % of times we finish 2nd & 3rd in the pot?

Anyhow, I flatted, which I now suspect points to a risk aversion leak? but hey its better than folding right?

Flop is   tc  js SB leads and I fold, SB shows  ah jd and btn thankfully misses his oesd with  qd and we are heads up with a 205k stack versus SB"s 278k