ITM spot, what to do????

[AJDUK]

FWIW I would have flatted for the same reasons you did. Play it out honestly and don"t care if me or SB wins the hand, based on your reads.
This should be all the evidence you need, to know you played it wrong.

[TheSnapper]

FWIW I would have flatted for the same reasons you did. Play it out honestly and don"t care if me or SB wins the hand, based on your reads.
This should be all the evidence you need, to know you played it wrong.

Made me chuckle Andy

[noble1]

prize money
500 - 59%
250 - 29%
120 - 14%

stacks
55k - P1
168k - P2
260k
assume as sb called he will call our shove 100% of the time...
100 times - shove or fold
shove
u think the sb"s range is 25%, 77 versus that is basically 50/50.. the short stacks range u reckon is 35%... 3way basically lets say best case 33% for us to win..
so break it down and run it in your mind 100 times...
33 times we would win outright..
34 times we end up with approx 318k versus the P1 with approx 165k..
33 times we lose and end up with 92k hu versus P2 with approx 391k OR 3way 92k versus approx P1 with 165k and P2 with 226k...

33x500 = 16500
20x500 = 10000
14x250 = 3500 [the 20 and 14 assume u win hu 60% of the time versus P1]
7x500 = 3500
7x250 = 1750
19x120 = 2280 [the last 33 times i maybe optimistically assume u win approx 20% Bren, likewise finish 2nd and 3rd approx 60% of the time]

thats 37530 in total over 100 times

fold
if we fold 100 times - 50 times we will end up HU against P2 with approx 223k [as he is considered by u as a poor player i will assume u win HU 70% of the time]
50 times we end up 3ways against P1 with approx 110k and P2 with approx 113k and ourselves with approx 260k, in this situation i assume u win 50%, get 2nd 30% of the time and 3rd 20% of the time...

35x500 = 17500
15x250 = 3750
25x500 = 12500
15x250 = 3750
10x120 = 1200

thats 38700 in total over 100 times

the win % i get from dividing your chips by the total chips in play to get a rough guide as to how often u will win...

so there is very little in folding or shoving, a fold slightly ahead, but based on opinion etc etc different camps of thought will favour one or the other.. me i think 77 is pretty much bottom of our range and given best case scenario that the two villains are as wide as we think they will go, i think i"d fold it and be pretty happy going heads up with the maniac with a skill advantage [thats if u think u have one].. 3way with the chip advantage i would be disappointed not to win 50% of the time...

all the above is pretty much just working by the effective stacks ignoring largely the blinds, the figs won"t be far off though...

[Swinebag]

top work

<3 noble

[TheSnapper]

[Zozzy]

with a guy all in, postflop should play out somewhat honestly.

Can you explain this statement to me please. Do you mean if you "flat" it should then be checked down to become HU ?

[TheSnapper]

[noble1]

4000/8000
      eff. stacks   33.3 times    33.3 times    33.3 times
P1 -     55k            177k             0                 0
P2 -     168k          113k             295k            113k
P3 -     260k          205k             205k            382k

if checked down Bren u will have the above scenarios, i"d guesstimate calling would mean u winning 1st place approx 54 times.. Gets tricky factoring in when u hit a set and P2 hits top pair or better then he will stack off or he hits top pair u miss your set, he bets u fold but he loses a certain % to P1 still... So the 54 times is about right imho...

of the 3 options folding seems to edge it overall with little difference between calling and shoving but as trying to factor in various flop textures and P2"s reactions if we call then personally i"d favour - folding > shoving > calling

[Zozzy]