End of MTT - is this guy correct to take a shot?

[AJDUK]

I play all my poker on gut feel, don"t use HUD"s or poker tracker etc because I don"t take it seriously enough. Never dabbled with ICM either. This sit cropped up after 4 hours play in the Poker Player GP freeroll.
Prizes are $250, $150 and $100 plus winner gets a seat in grand final.
Chip leader is abso crushing the FT he had 1/3rd of chips when 10 handed and half the chips when 5 handed.

All the hands I"ve been called with on this table have been decent. The big stack has been sat immediately on my right the whole FT, and I haven"t once reshoved him though I did shove on his BB a few times along the way. Basically 3 handed I"ve been shoving on the shortie with 100% success so was expecting to get HU with the big stack.

This just feels like too big a call to make, since he hasn"t put his stack at risk to that extent on FT as no-one ever had more than I had at this point. Or is it a good spot for him to take a pot shot, knowing that the shortie is gonna be in bad shape?

If it"s a bad play, what do you think his calling range should be? If it"s a good play, how much wider should his calling range be? Anything wrong with my shove?

Not a 50p, just looking to learn from those that know better. Thx.

***** History for hand T5-155222754-290 (TOURNAMENT: "Grand Prix Event 1", O-26899-1, buy-in: $0) *****
Start hand: Tue Jul 05 00:11:02 BST 2011
Table: Table #16 [155222754] (NO_LIMIT TEXAS_HOLDEM 3500/7000, ante: 700, Chips)
User: AJDUK34
Button: seat 3
Players in round: 3
Seat 3: betu2riv1 (59646)
Seat 8: Sammy.John (395247)
Seat 9: AJDUK34 (163107)
Sammy.John posts ante 700
AJDUK34 posts ante 700
betu2riv1 posts ante 700
Sammy.John posts small blind (3500)
AJDUK34 posts big blind (7000)
---
Dealing pocket cards
Dealing to AJDUK34: [, ]
betu2riv1 folds
Sammy.John raises 31500 to 35000
AJDUK34 raises 155407 to 162407 [all in]
Sammy.John calls 127407
--- Dealing flop [ ::, , ]
--- Dealing turn [ js]
--- Dealing river [ qd]
---
Summary:
Main pot: 326914 won by Sammy.John (326914)
Rake taken: $0
Seat 3: betu2riv1 (58946), net: -700
Seat 8: Sammy.John (559054), net: +163807, [ jd,  qs] (TWO_PAIR QUEEN, JACK)
Seat 9: AJDUK34 (0), net: -163107, [, ] (PAIR SEVEN)
***** End of hand T5-155222754-290 *****

[Zozzy]

His preflop raise, even allowing for the antes is excessive. If this was a basic blind steal with a view to folding to your shove I would expect it to be less. Coupled with this information you say he has been "crushing the table" which describes him maybe as a bigchip bully, which makes my gut feeling say he is going nowhere to a reraise.
Lets say for arguments sake you have a 10% chance of taking the pot down preflop.
To answer your question I would say that it is not a bad call by villain because he is comitted - I haven"t worked out the exact odds but by reading the figures once (as you would do in the heat of battle) I would say that he is slightly less than
40% pot odds. Holding QJ in these circumstances I generally think of 40% being the figure to work to.**

In my humble opinion I would say there is nothing wrong with your shove at all. You obviously thought that you had more fold equity than I am suggesting but given the payout structure it is a "no brainer" imo.
The difference in prize money 2nd to 3rd is minimal and the golden prize for 1st place is the seat.

The alternative play to just flat call float while being last to act on the flop is wrong. And folding is just too weak unless you are laddering up massively in a top heavy pay structure.

[noble1]

1st off congrats on getting that far, as for the hand, trying to fathom how these guys react and what there bet sizing may mean can be a nightmare sometimes
below are 2 links to a handy site which will give u some ranges to go by -
http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/icmcalculator.html?action=calculate&bb=7000&sb=3500&ante=700&structure=0.5%2C0.3%2C0.2&s1=59646&s2=395247&s3=163107&s4=&s5=&s6=&s7=&s8=&s9=

http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/icmcalculator.html?action=calculate&bb=7000&sb=3500&ante=700&structure=0.5%2C0.3%2C0.2&s1=402947&s2=151207&s3=51246&s4=&s5=&s6=&s7=&s8=&s9=

the top link gives u a range if he pushed 100%, if u made the assumption whilst in play that his range would be far tighter than that and after making a 5x raise he will call any shove u make, what would your shove range be now AJDUK

the bottom link is how the stacks would be if u folded, if Sammy.John folded his button would u shove this wide

just a couple of questions to get u thinking AJDUK, there are many a APAT"er who have made a final table or 2, i"m pretty sure Rob [swinebag] will give some solid advice.. Snapper, AMRN , G2L , Leigh [chipaccrual] and many many others i could mention i"m sure will give u there outlook on it....


just a note for the APAT MODS - any chance of having some sort of sticky giving a guide how best to post your questions with links etc to hand converters or replayers etc etc...
mucho regards to the MODS..

http://www.pokerxfactor.com/sheets/reshove.html
handy calc tool where u can put in various situations for reshoving a raiser, this is cEV though... But still handy never the less....

[AMRN]

Once he"s opened to 5x, he"s (should be) unlikely to fold any holding. You have to figure his raise size into your consideration when shoving - he"s almost nailed on to call.

[Swinebag]

 I think QJ is a powerhouse 3 handed so it is unlikely he will fold. When he 5x opens it makes the fold from your perspective much less likely. Having said that you have 77 3 handed which is also huge.

I think if I raise less and take into account your image, I could find a fold, but would probably still call as it is a great spot to take this down vs your small pairs, AK, and AT- hands that you shove with. I can still suck out against dominating hands and if I lose,still have a decent stack.

Well done on a great deep run. You just need to learn how to win flips  

Thanks noble for mentioning me separately from those fishes G2L, snapper and Redfern. Would hate to be associated in any way with that crew.

[deanp27]

Seems pretty standard when there is a big prize at the top. Villain is obviously terrible though but he is always gonna call it off once he has 5x it. Might be an argument to hold out for HU and own him then but I take the shot now

[TheSnapper]

Some questions first.....

• What is the value of the Grand final seat


• "Chip leader is abso crushing the FT" I assume you mean open raising a ton?, as he should be


• Has he been raising this large always


• Has he raise folded any

Villains play in the hand is awful, his hand does"nt fare well against your reship range so raising QJo with the intention of calling is ridiculous.

His options here should be dependent on how likely you are to resteal, if you are not likely to resteal light he should abuse that by raising (with a plan to fold to a resteal) often and small, 14000 - 16000 will succeed often enough to be profitable.

If you are likely to resteal light, open jamming takes that option from you and your range for defending becomes super tight, especially so given ICM implications.

As played, I suspect when you shove you know he calls somewhat light. Your hand doesn"t fare that well when called........

against a wide calling range of top 40% 44+,A2s+,K2s+,Q4s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A3o+,K7o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T9o
you only have 55%

If QJo is botttom of his range here you are up against a top 14% range of 77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo
and your equity is only 45%

Net result is, fold equity is a large % of your overall equity in this spot and an important factor to consider.

Ideal scenario with this villain type is to play, in position small ball but that may not be an option.

[George2Loose]

His bet size makes it a nailed on call once you jam. His open is pretty horrible tbh. I much prefer for him to raise/fold raise/call std 2.2x or even set you in rather than make the play he did

[noble1]

with 77 if we shove and get called 100% of the time which seems what we mostly all agree on, then what happens?

My run it 100 times logic
77 will win at best maybe 50% of the time..
50 times we lose

of the 50 times we double up the effective stacks would now be approx -
P1 - 52,000 [shortie now in bb]
P2 - 326,000 [hero now in sb]
P3 - 232,000 [Sammy.John the former chip leader]

from this 50 times how many times do we now go onto win?
lets say we win 25 times, P3 wins 20 times and P1 the short stack wins 5 times...

so after shoving 77 we go onto win 25 times....


if we fold the effective stacks approx look like this -

P1 - 52,000 [shortie in the bb]
P2 - 160,000 [hero in the sb]
P3 - 407,000 [Sammy.John still the chip leader]

so if we folded 100 times, from this position out of 100 times how many times would u guesstimate P2 will win???
any1 disagree with P2 winning 35 times ??
P3 wins 55 times and P1 wins 10 times...

so out of 100 times the shove nets us 25 wins and the fold nets us 35 wins...